Jeffrey Hawkins. Lead UI developer for electronic trade management system to create and position ads for digital syndication. This will come down to whoever the Liberal Party decides to endorse. Death: 1706 (35-36) Immediate Family: Son of Jeffery Hawkins and Dorothy Mattock. Informing the community since 1864. I forgot Julia !. Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) Analytical Tool. You have entered an incorrect email address! During the 2019/20 summer bushfires, Constance was in the frontline fighting fires that came close to destroying his home. eg mistreating those in lgas of concern, does the other side seem capable to do the job. By the way, Abbott won the TPP twice in NSW so I reject your idea that he was widely unpopular. This may change and new or similar conditions may be made for this or subsequent elections. Nominations for candidates closed seven days later at noon on 27 January, with the ballot paper draw commencing in the morning of 28 January. There are some booths at fed level (Senate) where the Nats get 2-3% of the vote (Swanbourne etc.). Your digital subscription includes access to all content on our agricultural websites across the nation. Id be calling a Liberal Retain at this stage, with a reduced margin, owing to the Personal Vote of Constance and the impact of OPV. Would have to agree with some of the comments Wreathy made, that state elections are more focussed on service delivery and hence why parties suffer large swings when the public observes them not performing this role (best examples being NSW 2011 and also Queensland 2015 against Campbell Newman). Dear TCA Members, Your TCA Elections Sub-committee has again been hard at work, advocating on your behalf, and reaching out to all 7 candidates in the upcoming Bega By-Election.. All of the candidates were approached with the TCA's top 5 items of concern and the results of our candidate questionnaire for the recent Eurobodalla Shire Council election late last year, and asked to respond with . The Liberals hold Bega by a safe 6.9 per cent, while The Nationals hold Monaro by a 11.6 per . Greens: Peter Haggar 3,453 6.98 -2.78 Shooters, Fishers, Farmers: Victor Hazir 2,312 4.67 1.79 Independent: Jeffrey Hawkins 1,379 2.79 +2.79 Sustainable Australia: Karin Geiselhart 1,011 2.04 +2.04 Independent . Read and follow the instructions in the postal vote pack carefully. Cause of by-election It maybe the case that this seat will attract more attention going forward like Eden Monaro does federally especially as i pointed out in an earlier post that some seats the Labor previously held like Bathurst and Drummoyne are increasingly out of reach for Labor. February 2022 State By-Elections 12-FEB-2022 First Preference Votes Report Parliamentary Election: Bega 26/02/2022 1:31:20 PM. Could she blow this? Relating to the elections and operations of certain hospital districts. His posts are fine. Hence why there were National Party corflutes in East Perth last state election. one point as well optional preferential means usually benefita the main party that polls the higher primary vote in any given seat who is the premier is effected by.. do they seem competent includes mistakes in administration unfair policy decisions. Fiona Kotvojs didnt contest Monaro because she was born and lives in this seat. If anything, I can see it working in his favour. Contents par | Fv 16, 2022 | sweetest single malts | codification definition | Fv 16, 2022 | sweetest single malts | codification definition swiss made simple portfolio tracker online. Our requirements currently made known are: Community Driven support and development, Job Security, Affordable Housing being made available, supporting our Health Services. best city of west sacramento staff directory clone watches are The area under administration is located to the west of Newcastle. Now he says he's got the ultimate invention: software that mimics the human brain. Within a day of his announcement, Constance withdrew after facing personal attacks and realising he would face a difficult pre-election battle. & Fraser. Bega by-election Electorate Background Bega is a NSW south coast electorate that spans from Batemans Bay to the Victorian border. It has the second lowest proportion of couple families with children (23.4%), third highest proportion of couples families with no children (54.0%) and the fourth lowest workforce participation rate (46.5%). Contribute to chinapedia/wikipedia.en development by creating an account on GitHub. Wait a few weeks to see the impact in terms of new cases and their severity. How does this relate to Perrottet? The old brain and the new. This article provides information on candidates who stood for the 1999 New South Wales state election. Studio:1300 92 12 50, Karin Geiselhart Sustainable Australia Party, Victor Hazir, Shooters Fishers and Farmers. Whitlam Not sure how far up the coast the boundary with South Coast was. 48 year-old Constance is a former President of the NSW Young Liberals and worked in government relations and corporate affairs before winning pre-selection for Bega ahead of the 2003 election. We also have strong sports, social, entertainment and rural sections as well as our local features and genuine classifieds. For the first time all electors will be sent a postal vote pack. We care about the protection of your data. Passionate about doodling, imagination, and creativity. Dont worry the fact that he isnt the best, let alone that he is on balance an ordinary , mediocre, unremarkable, average etc performer will haunt him plenty enough . This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. https://www.begadistrictnews.com.au/story/7598058/, NSW 2023 where preferences have flowed over time, Podcast #86: Introduction to the NSW election, When local council parties break into state politics. Firm market at Stanthorpe as seasonal weaner sales start, Inland Rail's northern progress hangs on Queensland approvals, Sangus heifers PTIC top Yulgilbar female sale, Tamworth turns out for Country Championships qualifier, Man killed in early morning ute rollover crash, Terms and Conditions - Digital Subscription, Terms and Conditions - Newspaper Subscription. Jeffrey Hawkins Associate Broker | License #152370 Real Estate Office 2675 Mall of Georgia Blvd, Buford, GA 30519 (678) 898-5701 Get Directions. GitHub export from English Wikipedia. To make a comment or suggest a change to the election site, pleasecontact us. do not use insulting, provocative hateful, obscene or offensive language, do not make unproven or unsupported accusations against individuals or organisations, do not post material that infringes the intellectual property rights of others, do not post misinformation or misleading information, do not post overtly party political comments, do not post internet addresses or links to websites (verified Australian and state and territory .gov.au websites are permitted), do not identify matters that are currently the subject of legal proceedings or would break a courts non-publication order. Liberal Party two-party preferred percentage ranging from 19.8% at the tiny Tanja Public School east of Bega, to 68.5% at the Sapphire Coast Bridge Club Room at Tura Beach near Merimbula. ABC Southeast Radio held a candidates forum at Riverside park in Moruya from 9AM till 10AM on Tuesday 8th February, which was broadcast live. I would think the 9% swing was mostly attributable to a personal vote for Barilaro. Dr Holland is an obstetrician, gynaecologist and university lecturer and has lived and worked in the district for two decades. Creative Resort, +4 more. 199 Likes, 2 Comments - Confluences internationales (@confluences_internationales) on Instagram: "lections prsidentielles au Nigria Pour en savoir plus - Hawkins Jeff, Nigerian Elections:" Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. German born mother of 9 who now lives in Moruya. Jeffrey Hawkins, Independent. Birthplace: Norton-Bavant, Wiltshire, England. Was a 2% margin pre-2019. Address by Dr Karin Geiselhart 11 September 2018 Mayoral Minute Notification Oversight re Community Consultation on Rural Lands Planning Proposal (RLPP) 11 September 2018 Dear Councillors and Council Good Morning Councillors I am Dr Karin Geiselhart. [5] In 1920, with the introduction of proportional representation, it was absorbed into Goulburn, along with Monaro. Labor's highest first preference vote since 1988 is 34.9% in 2007. Daniel isnt really spitting much more in the wind than anyone else and he manages to mostly express his opinions respectfully, so he deserves at least that much in return. Geography Longer term Labor should target this. Hawkins, 57, told the operator his name, his phone number and his address . Shortly afterwards he was critical of Scott Morrison's visit to fire ravaged Cobargo in the electorate, suggesting the Prime Minister had received the reception he deserved. Jeffrey Hawkins (Independent) Karin Geiselhart (Sustainable Australia) Ursula Bennett (Independent) Michael Holland (Labor) Peter Haggar (Greens) New South Wales Bega By-election 2022 Polling Place Results 2022 . This seat has been won by Labor for the first time since it is inception in 1988. The NSW branch of the Liberals is also now the most dysfunctional in the country (next to WA, VIC and SA) right on the eve of fighting 3 by-elections and a federal election round the corner with many seats without a candidate. But Labor will throw everything at this and because the premier has failed NSW in terms of leadership (How many cases does NSW have now?) In future elections Bega should go with government. Jeffrey Hawkins, 66, of Oswego, passed away suddenly on Wednesday, June 02, 2021. HOWEVER; Hawkins, Jeffrey Mr. Jeffrey G. Hawkins age 61 of Grand Rapids passed away unexpectedly on Wednesday January 12, 2022. Interesting now the state Libs are now distancing themselves from the Federal government, even moreso with the leaking of Gladys test messages confirms their relationship has been rocky. Be sure to. She co-authored a book about Australia's ageing society. Author of Self-Making Studio. After his first victory in 2003, Constance increased his majority in 2007, and took the seat into very safe Liberal territory on the defeat of the Labor government in 2011. Karin Geiselhart Sustainable Australia Party. After the election of the O'Farrell government in 2011, Constance was appointed Minister for Ageing and Disability Services, moved to Finance and Services in August 2013, before being appointed Treasurer and Minister for Industrial Relations by new Premier Mike Baird in April 2014. View My Website. 3. For the first time, postal vote packages have been sent to all electors in the electorates, as part of COVID-19 safe practices. Weston Creek Molonglo have eye on minor premiership after stunning day, 'They don't trust coaches mate': Ricky fires up after heartbreak, An officer and his horse at Gallipoli: Each made Australian history in their own way, 'His eyes are like the ocean': Viking conquers Canberra, Debreczeni returns to Melbourne a calm and composed figure, Paraglider transferred to hospital after Lake George accident, 'It's been my life': ACT medicos retire after decades in grassroots health care, Creatures and aliens light up the city centre during Enlighten, Terms and Conditions - Digital Subscription, Terms and Conditions - Newspaper Subscription. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Liberal MP and frontbencher Andrew Constance, who is running for the federal seat of Gilmore at the 2022 Australian federal election. Electoral manager for the seat of Bega Fay Steward conducted the ballot draw at the returning office in Bega on Friday morning, January 28. For more information on how to vote and where pre-polling is located, click here, I have worked as a journalist since 2005 and am now Editor of Australian Community Media mastheads in Bega, Merimbula and Eden. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Jeffrey Hawkins (Independent) - a resident of Tathra (no other information available) Constance held Bega with a 6.9% margin in 2019. NOTE: Comments are on TRIAL for Members Only - Feel free to Register - Note you are legally liablefor what you write and anything that breaches our Terms and Conditions WILL be deleted and if you persist you WILL be BLOCKED. iVote is not available but see note below on postal voting. These companies have an estimated turnover of $ 4.074 billions and employ a number of employees estimated at 5,777. Postal votes will be checked against in-person voting rolls to prevent double voting. Griffith City Council - Mayor Doug Curran. Almost reminds me of a certain former Monaro MP and their affinity for Rushcutters Bay. Orient St, Batemans Bay 2536, Phone:02 6492 1633 Bega REFRESH YOUR SCREEN FOR THE LATEST NEWS, As is often evident in election results the position a candidate receives on a ballot paper serves the donkey vote well. Click for more details of two-party preferred results by polling place and vote type. This is the seat I will be watching closely on the next Super-Saturday or whenether it is held. - Finance Projects, Audit requirements, systems documentation, UAT preparation. Information on candidates and how-to-vote material can be sent to. Jeffrey Jay Hawkins: Bega 2023 State General Election : My offer is: Honesty & Ethics, with Accountability for (and from) everyone in our governance. Also read: Overall, she's best, and only, Nat candidate for Monaro. But the high level of support for the Greens, plus independents at several elections, have boosted Labor through strong preference flows. REDWOOD CITY, Calif. In the global race to build artificial intelligence, it was a missed opportunity. Ballot Paper draw 8.30 am 28 January. They do not work as well in NSW where most locals have a more free spirited attitude and are more critical of excessive control in their lives. I Just want anyone else to win but Morrison He is a traitor self indulgent hypocrite I voted 60 years for the liberals never again .The independents will get nmy vote so will millions of others who see Morrison as the worst prime minister in Australias History. Not sure but Eden may have been a Labor voting town and Bega a conservative town. ** from above, I jumped the gun slightly and dont think SFF will get that high a vote just saw that their candidate according to their form is from Balgowlah Heights! The seat was won in 1988 by the Liberal Partys Russell Smith. The former member Andrew Constance has resigned to contest the federal election. He held the seat until his retirement in 2003. Bega is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. This is especially important as seats like Drummoyne, Bathurst and Riverstone are increasingly out of reach and the demographic shifts in East Hills and Oatley are trending away from Labor along the Georges River (all seats they held until 2011). Before moving to Jeffrey's current city of Oswego, IL, Jeffrey lived in Aurora IL. . Some young Liberals door knocking in the swish western suburbs of Perth and who should open the door of one residence? Jeffrey Hawkins: HAWKINS, Jeffrey: Tathra: Independent: View : Karin Geiselhart: GEISELHART, Karin: Moruya Heads: Sustainable Australia Party - Stop Overdevelopment / Corruption: View : She started her working career as a high school teacher before she moved on to operate two businesses, one of which specialised in designing, managing and evaluating Australian foreign aid programs in Asia-Pacific nations. Along with the Liberals, Labor and Greens candidates, there are two independents, a candidate for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and one for Sustainable Australia Party - Stop Overdevelopment and Corruption. SUS got 3% in Kiama but 7% in Albury 2019, being the closest seats it previously contested, never contesting Bega nor Monaro before, but their state vote tends to be 1-3% for each seat. Ballot Draw ordered announced: https://www.begadistrictnews.com.au/story/7598058/. A by-election was held in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Bega in on 12 February 2022. On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. ESC Voting information (as at October 2021), Non-resident ratepayers voting info (as at October 2021). Fiona Kotvojs, Liberal british telecom gurgaon address sector 21. ACN 003 766 541 Bega's results have trended towards the state two-party preferred outcome at recent elections. Kay M Treble Access unlimited news content and The Canberra Times app. This seat has been won by Labor for the first time since it is inception in 1988. It is represented by Michael Holland of the Labor Party. I think Constance has a large personal vote, and this is the only one of the three Labor have a chance in. Bryce Wilson is standing again for Labor after an unsuccessful campaign at the 2019 NSW election. Alan I. Abramowitz and Jeffrey A. Segal present a compelling case that Senate elections have become much more competitive than House elections and thus the Senate has become more responsive to shifts in the national political climate than has the House. The ballot draw for Bega has been announced and the order on the ballot paper will be: I dont agree that Perrotets factional allegiances are putting this seat at serious risk, at least not yet, but I also dont agree that Berejiklians popularity has anything to do with service delivery, or rather, that the idea that she exemplifies that in any way isnt just a function of an utterly servile press gallery and a lack of an effective opposition counter-narrative. two-party preferred results by polling place and vote type. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. Labor candidates Coalition candidates Greens candidates One Nation candidates SFF candidates ; Courtney Houssos; Rose Jackson; Cameron Murphy; Emily Suvaal; John Graham; Bob Nanva; Stephen Lawrence; Sarah Kaine; Mick Veitch; Natasha Maclaren-Jones (); Bronnie Taylor (); Chris Rath (); Rachel Merton (); Ben Franklin (); Susan Carter (); Jacqui Munro ()Scott Barrett (); Cate Faehrmann; Amanda Cohn Jeffrey HawkinsAGE: 40 PennsaukenJeffrey Hawkins, of Pennsauken, NJ, on February 24, 2014, age 40, aka "BUFF". Of course, this was Michael Hollands (and Constances) home turf but this makes it all the more harder for Andrew Constance to try and win back Gilmore from Labor in a declining Morrison government and as Ed Husic had said, his popularity has waned since the bushfires and voters will question the need for him to try and jump from state to federal politics. Redistributed, thanks for the clarification. Nov 26 is the last sitting day of NSW Parliament for the year. (Click here for full size map), Maps courtesy of the NSW Electoral Commission. [3], Early results showed a swing of more than 13% towards Labor in the seat, suggesting it would be won by Michael Holland, the first time the seat of Bega would be held by the Australian Labor Party (ALP) since it was created in 1988. State Electoral District of Bega Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) Analytical Tool Millions of real salary data collected from government and companies - annual starting salaries, average salaries, payscale by company, job title, and city. Pre polling starts 31 January. The seat did not re-appear on the states electoral map until the Legislative Assembly was expanded to 109 seats at the 1988 election. His personal vote was very strong in the area and he has been thoroughly consistent with his views on Morrison. The Liberal Party recorded majorities in 25 of the 34 polling places used at the 2019 elections. Welcome to the official Facebook page of the Bega District News! Local candidates do not matter as much as they used to, voters have become increasingly partisan these days and will vote for which party they want in government. Correction to the first paragraph: Constance resigned in Bega to contest Gilmore, not Eden-Monaro. Former Eden-Monaro candidate Fiona Kotvojs has been announced as the candidate for the liberals here, https://twitter.com/gavincoote/status/1471663069432475650?s=21, Fiona Kotvojs couldnt win Eden Monaro even when Mike Kelly retired and the coalition was ahead in the national opinion polls. In Bega, there are seven candidates with independent Jeffrey Hawkins drawing first place on the ballot. Neuroscientist and tech entrepreneur Jeff Hawkins claims he's figured out how intelligence worksand he wants every AI lab in the world to know about it. For open, accountable and responsive government. NSW Libs name Bega by-election candidate. The electorate of Bega formerly held by Andrew Constance is being contested by Independent Jeffrey Hawkins, Sustainable Australia's Karin Geiselhart, Independent Ursula Bennett, Labor . [1], The Bega by-election was held on the same day as by-elections for the districts of Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby. Be sure to. Dr Holland has been a strong advocate to see improved health services in the region, continuing to place a spotlight on the fact that Eurobodalla Health Services has to send more than 40 per cent of its patients to hospitals outside the region. A seat of the same name also existed from 1894 to 1920. Should have run in Willoughby instead, much closer! overlapping the seat of Gilmore) was stronger than in the south around Bega and Merimbula. We care about the protection of your data. We encourage our members, friends, and networks to be a part of the conversation, by sharing the information . Will we miss Mr Constance aka The Gingerbread Man handing out the $$$ here and there and everywhere before every election??? It might be close in 2023 as 1976 and 1995 which were both years the coalition lost government in NSW it was close, however going through 4 premiers, the same as what the last Labor government went through, voters are sick and tired of NSW changing premiers every term of parliament. Local representation matters in seats like Bega, Monaro or Eden-Monaro. Tathra resident Jeffrey Hawkins will contest the seat of Bega as an independent candidate. jeffrey hawkins bega electionblack owned baby blanketblack owned baby blanket Its worth noting that Labor won most of the booths in the overlapping parts of Gilmore and Eden-Monaro at the last federal election, which shows potential for growth for state Labor here. Love agricultural news? You will see Yass reach similar status. Monaro was Labor until 1965 and after 1976. Despite the Liberals suffering a 10-point swing against them in 2015, they retained it and did so again in 2019. (She probably wouldnt have contested Monaro due to it being a Nationals and not Liberal seat). The relevant dates for the Bega by election are : There were seven candidates confirmed for the Bega by- election. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:- Codeca. The period left Constance re-assessing his political future and hinting he would not contest the next election. Dont understand the hate Daniel gets. It was recreated in 1988. timothy sullivan obituary 2021 timothy sullivan obituary 2021. timothy sullivan obituary 2021 27 Feb. timothy sullivan obituary 2021 Hawkins begins by walking us through the basics of the neocortex, which makes up 70 percent of the human brain. The Liberal Party then pre-selected Andrew Constance, a choice to which some locals took umbrage as while Constance had family connections with the electorate, he did not live in the seat at the time. 10/13/2021 6:34 AM. The Ivote system will not be used for these by-elections, but all electors were sent a postal voting pack and everyone is allowed to pre-poll. At the end of the pre-polling period on Friday 11 February, 17,343 pre-polls had been taken representing 29.4% of enrolment. Polling Day is Saturday 12 February with pre-poll voting from Monday 31 January. What about Monaro? @Echt I think Constance in Gilmore will hold his own. Lockdowns and restrictions play well in Queensland where voters are more conservative and law abiding. Jodie Maree Papenhuyzen It is best to wait at least another year, until end of 2022 to see how well Perrottet is continuing with ongoing infrastructure and other plans for NSW. The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from just 50.5% in Bega Valley North to 59.5% in Bega Valley South. The ballot draw for Bega by-election just took place, with independent Jeffrey Hawkins of Tathra scoring top slot in the list of 7 candidates The ballot draw for the state by-election for the seat of Bega has taken place this morning jeffrey hawkins bega election. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. To get a rough baseline I have IND (Ursula) at 1.5%, IND (Hawkins) 1%, SUS 2.5%, SFF 7%, GRN 10%, 32% ALP, 46% LIB. Constance had served as a minister since 2011, and as Minister for Transport since the 2015 election. Pre-poll voting for the Bega by-election opens on Monday, January 31. Constance was immensely popular in the seat and, if Constance gives a solid enough endorsement of the candidate, this might be enough to hang on. Turnbull They are wrong at least 90% of the time. 2. Suprisingly he is the state member for Epping, which is the district I originally lived in prior to moving into Brisbane this year and where my family still lives in. Representation Formal Votes % Total Formal Votes; HAWKINS Jeffrey: Independent: 1,379: 2.79%: GEISELHART Karin: Sustainable Australia Party - Stop Overdevelopment / Corruption: Ensure Job Security for Local Businesses. And I believe Fiona Kotvojs would have lost Bega based on the EM by-election result. Direct Phone Independent candidate for Bega by-election Jeffrey Hawkins https://ift.tt/fotZ1mVx8. The swing that was in the northern part of the seat around Moruya and Batemans Bay (i.e. Bring on election night! I agree that Morrison has achieved what no other PM has ever attained ; How sexist of me ! It has the states third lowest proportion of children aged five and under (4.2%), the lowest proportion aged 15-24 (8.6%) and the third highest 65 and over (28.4%). The Caf is known for its focus on waste reduction, use of compostable packaging and support for local suppliers. Labor at a federal level does well in this area so they have the demographics to support this. In Bega, there are seven candidates with independent Jeffrey Hawkins drawing first place on the ballot. Bega covers all of EurobodallaandBega Valley shires. That said, if we accept the (possibly suspect) midterm polling, Abbotts dislike would much more likely be attributed to swinging cuts rather than his religious conservatism. There was no Covid-related restrictions announced for the by-elections , other than the present indoor rules, because the NSW Electoral Commissioner was only given this power for the local government elections. The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.8% in northern Eurobodalla to 14.2% in northern Bega Valley. Election 25/01/2022 Hawkins, Jeffrey Jay Bega 2022 State By-election Legislative Assembly Election 24/01/2022 1. But the Liberal candidate in the neighbouring seat of Bega, cattle farmer Fiona Kotvojs, drew the last ballot position, when the ballot draw was made on Friday morning. Rudd Work with Shire Councils to Address Current Housing Shortages for Affordable Living. As is often evident in election results the position a candidate receives on a ballot paper serves the donkey vote well. With an Independent drawn as Barrier One it will be interesting to see the results from this election. Election results in Bega at the 2019 NSW state election Read our Privacy Policy. By February 16, 2022 women's minnetonka moccasins home design for climate change. Jeffrey Hawkins, Independent; Karin Geiselhart Sustainable Australia Party; Ursula Bennett, Independent; Michael Holland, Labor; Peter Haggar, Greens; Victor Hazir, Shooters Fishers and Farmers; Fiona Kotvojs, Liberal; Pre-poll voting for the Bega by-election opens on Monday, January 31. Monaro may be more anti-lockdown than this seat, Lockdowns are popular whether people like them or not. Im not saying she cant win but this will be really close. 3. Share . Jeffrey is related to Glyndia Dell Fancher . The writs for election were issued on 21 January 2022. . Does anyone know if this part of the Far South Coast of NSW was ever held by State labor is previous seats for example during the Wran area. jeffrey hawkins bega electiontypes of farm organisationtypes of farm organisation That margin could certainly be overturned at a by-election. Select this result to view Jeffrey Hawkins's phone number, address, and more. Father of Roger Hawkins , Susanna Margaret Hawkins , Daniel Hawkins , Elizabeth Jane (Hawkins) Derby , Jeffrey Hawkins , James Hawkins , Roger Hawkins and Anne Hawkins. There obviously is some personal vote that Constance enjoyed but it wont be 7%, but regardless I am tipping a Labor gain because of the factors I mentioned before. Party codes: (ALP) Labor, (LIB) Liberal, (GRN) Greens, (SFF) Shooters Fishers and Farmers, (CON) Australian Conservatives, (AJP) Animal Justice Party. The issue is that you still think that you are relevant here. The seat covers the towns of Bega, Eden, Batemans Bay and Moruya. I do not believe the NSW poll saying nothing has moved since Gladys resigned. Bega has historically tended to be a safe conservative seat, although demographic change has led to the seat becoming increasingly marginal for the Liberal Party for much of the early part of the 21st century. Bega in its current form has existed since 1988. Bega has the classic census profile of a retiree electorate. I think there will be some anger at Constances sudden departure, though 7% is not that easy to overcome. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst.
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