8. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Outstanding. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. It is easy to gloss over this. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Joe Biden (631) The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Until this year. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. What science tells us about the afterlife. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Watch Hampton City. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. All rights reserved. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. 2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. . In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. That report was issued on Nov. 12. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Demographics (84) The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. (subject to censorship). Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic Do you know this baby? Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". 2. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Outstanding. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The highest percentage being 66.1%. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Hillary Clinton (578) But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Found an error on our site? Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. First, what are bellwether counties? 3. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. List of election bellwether counties in the United States Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. 5. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. 7. Until this year. In 2020, a single. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide].
Best Salons In Chicago Suburbs,
Jennifer Black Obituary,
Benton, Arkansas Funeral Home Obituaries,
Michael Rice Cyclist Japan Wife,
El Viacrucis Meditado,
Articles OTHER